The last major market mover last week came at the end when ECB president Mario Draghi vowed to do anything within the ECB mandate to preserve the Euro. This came as a reversal in projected attitude from the central bank because just a month or two ago, Draghi has been putting the onus of the euro-rescue on politicians. This week, we’ll see if the latest message has anything practical to follow.
Let’s be prepared for this week’s central bank risk events as they are likely to be the main focus of the markets, before Friday’s US Non-Farm Payroll data. Yep, this is a week full of key fundamentals.
August 1: Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)
The Federal Funds Rate have been stuck at the 0-0.25% range, with no further room to cut since the rate slashing campaign through 2008.
The recovery in the US has slowed down quite noticeably, in employment and manufacturing. However, The latest estimate of Q2 GDP being 1.5% was lower than the 1.9% in Q1, but was in line with forecasts. Therefore it does not urge the Fed to use QE at the moment. They would undoubtedly keep this card in the deck as Bernanke has always suggested.
Another reason the QE prospect is not going up is the resilience of the equity markets so far this year, though recent earnings reports have been disappointing.
The other factor, inflation is low enough for consideration of QE, so at this point it is simply that the economy is not terrible enough to warrant QE.
August 2: European Central Bank (ECB)
Mario Draghi opened up market’s expectation for the ECB to continue the Securities Market Program (SMP), which pumped money into the banking system without printing, or use QE, which does require more money supply in order to buy bonds.
There is an unspoken alignment that the ECB will only purchase bonds if the politicians take the step first, and it it likely that they will wait for the ESM to come on line in September to do so.
It is therefore not likely any actions will be taken. The market will be very disappointed unless Draghi does provide some specific details on how the ECB will back the politicians.
August 2: Bank of England (BoE)
As the preliminary reading for Q2 GDP was -0.7%, which not only represents the 3rd quarter in a row of negative growth but also disappointed forecasts, the BoE is getting more likely to slash the benchmark interest rate from 0.50% to a historical low of 0.25% or even 0%.
It’s QE program, or Asset Purchase Facility was increased on July 5 by 50B pounds, from 325B to 375B, so it is likely to hold off on this effort.
Inflation has fallen to an annual rate of 2.4% in June from the heights of 5.2% in October, and gives the BoE more room to cut rates.
Fan Yang CMT is a forex trader, analyst, educator and Chief Technical Strategist for FXTimes – provider of Forex News, Analysis, Education, Videos, Charts, and other trading resources.