USD/JPY Daily chart 8/28/2013 4:00PM ET
(Click to enlarge)
Consolidation: The retreated from 99.14 but failed to hold a break below support around 97.00. Outside these session to session swings we been seeing, the USD/JPY is consolidating in a congestion/triangle pattern as ween in the daily chart.
It should be noted that the market is still above the 200-day SMA, and in that sense, the bull market since Nov. 2012 is still intact.
A break below the triangle should also clear below the 200-day SMA, and therefore would reflect a game change and expose the 90.84 pivot, and origin of the broken triangle support.
A break back above 99-99.14 at this point would revive the uptrend toward 101.52 and the 103.74 2013-high.
It looks like price is nearing the apex, so a break is likely. However, when its so close to the apex, a break could come from a very near-term swing and therefore not always indicative of breakout direction. I think if it can stay on one side of 98.00, it would be a good sign of direction following a breakout.
Fan Yang CMT is a forex trader, analyst, educator and Chief Technical Strategist for FXTimes – provider of Forex News, Analysis, Education, Videos, Charts, and other trading resources.